Over the years, futurists have made technology predictions that seem ridiculous in retrospect. Even brilliant, serious thinkers promised us hover cars and space colonies that have yet to pan out; what went wrong? In many cases, the technology was available, but there was no business case for the predicted advances. Sure, we can colonize the moon—if somebody is willing to foot the bill.
Consider the fate of streaming video: we have the technologies to make high-quality, on-demand video a reality, yet such services are still in incubation. The easiest way to get a movie online today is through services like NetFlix, which deliver movies via decidedly low-tech “snail mail.” Why aren't we all watching streaming video by now?
One major stumbling block is the lack of connections. According to a recent study by the FCC, only about 7% of U.S. households have broadband subscriptions. The primary barrier to penetration is usually seen as cost: the FCC cited surveys that found consumers wanted high-speed Internet access, just not at today's rates. However, this argument flies in the face of logic; many of these same consumers shell out similar fees for cable TV. Perhaps the problem with streaming video isn't in the price of the connection, but the lack of compelling content.
Indeed, content remains pitifully limited. This is hardly surprising: content providers like movie studios have little incentive to invest in streaming media when there are few widely deployed revenue-collection mechanisms. And these mechanisms are not likely to evolve until key players, particularly those in Hollywood, resolve the uncertainty over copyright issues and content protection. This is unfortunate; while Hollywood understandably wants to prevent Napster-style renegades from siphoning revenue away from legitimate sources, the current quagmire prevents those legitimate sources from developing in the first place.
We engineers are prone to thinking that if we build a better widget, the world will beat a path to our door. But the reality for most of us is that good technology is at best an important component of a successful product. We have to engineer not only the technology, but also an “ecosystem” that makes economic sense.
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